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Yes, trading is all about establishing probability scenarios that favor us, right? How can you establish a statistical probability scenario? That alone means that you will be a failed trader. One of my friends who is a floor trader actually was one of my mentors for quite a while in Chicago and he said, Barry, you know what? Of the two, time is actually more important than price and that very few people even use this in their trading in any way, shape or form.
And the uptown cycles, that means timing your entries with the highs and the lows, the swing high swing lows. Just send me an email at barry topdogtrading.
Today, what I want to focus on is this one, the seasonal or calendar cycles. The crops grow over the summer and then you reap your harvest in the fall. But that is a cycle, the agricultural cycle. And then another one is the retail sector. There are some businesses, in fact, that make all their money during the holidays in December or they pushed it even into November now to keep extending it.
But the bottom line is these couple of months is the time when some businesses actually make all their profits and others to make the majority of their profits. So people who are watching the retail stocks and sectors, things like that, they are watching this time of year.
A third one is travel. So again, timing is very important for that. So you get the idea and there are many other cycles that are associated with the calendar year. The weather would drop and the oranges would die. And that really had a major dramatic effect on the orange juice commodity market. So prices would go up because why?
The price went up. No, because some farmers lost all their crops and made no money. They invested all that money into farming, into the machinery, into raising the crops of whatever it was, wheat, corn. And now they got nothing back. So they are deeply in debt.
I would rather have the guaranteed price. The retail sector is actually a better one because weather events are very difficult, in fact, impossible to predict. How are people doing, are they making lots of money and that sort of thing. So people can start looking at these economic indicators ahead of time and that again is the deal. The last thing I want to say is that using these types of cycles affect any type of cycles, is just one energy in the market.
Money going in, money going out, the buying, the selling, the supply, the demand. You still need other things. But this is one extra thing that you can add to your trading in professionals. Kind of a weird thing to say, but what I mean by that is that if you did get value from it, please pay it forward, just pay it forward. And the best way to do that is to click the share button. Click the subscribe button. Click the thumbs up icon, leave comments below.
I love your comments. I call it the rubber band trade. Get it absolutely free by clicking on the image in the top right corner of the video or in the description below the video. Once you do one of those things, I will personally email the video to you with the rubber band trade strategy. This strategy will surely give an edge in trading against many others.
I use this all the time and I absolutely love it. First of all, you want to see that you have a change of direction. So we have had a move up. And I will tell you that I agree — entries, I have no problem with entries. But exits are much more challenging than entries. But what we do want is a good risk-reward ratio and we want a reasonable, logical and high probability time to exit.
First of all, let me show you how to draw this. You start there and then to there and then a lower high. So looking for that shift in a trend. This is just the central line, you want to consider it that. So the middle one I make black and then the two outside of that I make thicker and darker blue. And then the ones outside of that, a little lighter blue and the wind outside of that a lot lighter blue. I would expect that. But anyway, here you could see the handle. So the handle is that part where the fork, you would actually pick up the fork so to say.
But what is important here are the percentages. So, tine one is percent, tine to zero percent. Now, I have found that different charting platforms will prescribe different percentages there, but this is for Ninja trader seven. So these are going to be equidistant from the handle from the middle line. And then from there, I use 50 percent differences.
So those are the settings that I use here. And as long as price action stays between these two times or these two lines, we are continuing that same type of energy. In other words, the market is not going down with as much enthusiasm as it started. Sometimes it does, but this is a little more typical of what happens. So it comes back down, hits that tine, comes back up, comes back down, hits that time, it comes back up, kind of rides this one down.
Now, when it breaks out of the final one, the final line or tine, then I consider, this downtrend completely done this pitch fork over. Not going to look at that pitchfork anymore. I could just take it off of the chart if I wanted to. That would be one place to exit. Another place to exit is a little more aggressive. You get a little more reward on it is when you wait for it to break out outside of this major tine here.
And then look for it to come back and see how low it can go. It may not come all the way down here. You could look for things like a double bottom, etc. But just look for it to come back down here and then take a profit down here.
So those are two options for you. The signal that the energy has changed no longer is dramatic to the downside. So we drew it. The two major ones. Just create more clarity for you. So it comes in here, holds that one, gets a little below it, comes back up to the middle and holds this one.
By the way, notice that it also kind of provides diagonal support resistance. Now, here is the point of the second type of exit. Once it gets above the upper major tine, I call these my two primary tines. So this is then a very aggressive move to the upside for it to break above; see, last time we were looking forward to break below the tine to get out.
So I consider that to be often an exhaustion move. It actually did make a higher high after that. But look what it also did in the meantime, which is very cool. So this is where, I would get out on an exhaustion move. Comes down here, right? So that went up. Did it make a little higher high after where I got out?
And then, well, what happens then when it finally does break down below this final tine, look at that, sure enough, that trend reverses and it goes down. So that is one of my favorite trading indicators, strategies, drawing tools, etc. Test it out for yourself, see how you like it.
Yeah, it is free. But from a spiritual point of view, if you got value from it, then you have an obligation to pay it forward.
October 12, at 8: Neither the author nor publisher assume responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results.
It has a very high win-loss ratio. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.